BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White Ibis Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

White Ibis in North Carolina has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+148%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White Ibis Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White Ibis has surged in North Carolina: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

White Ibis Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in North Carolina is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±332.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+194%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±332.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White Ibis in North Carolina is projected to rise about 194% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±332.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.0011
20261.90.0011
20271.90.0011
20281.80.0011
20291.80.0011

White Ibis Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording White Ibis in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte16419911968
Milltail Cr3820212000
Supply2820241992
Green Swamp2020062004
Reelsboro1820112002
Congleton1520122012
Cayton1220212019
Merrimon1120231977
Myrtle Grove1120241970
Jarvisburg 2420172010
Wards Corner320241994
Hallsboro320191986
Ernul220062006
Maple Hill220212006
Sheep Ridge120062006
Broad Creek120101993
Kinston120062006
Newport120161995
Montague120071993
Mattamuskeet120142006

White Ibis Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasfloridageorgialouisianamarylandmississippinew-jerseyoklahomasouth-carolinatexasvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.