BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Caspian Tern Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Caspian Tern in Texas has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+2%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Caspian Tern Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Texas. See the full index history below.

Caspian Tern Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±209.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±209.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±209.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.000.27
20250.110.000.27
20260.110.000.27
20270.110.000.27
20280.110.000.27

Caspian Tern Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Caspian Tern in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
L. Atascosa Nwr1220231999
Padre Island Pais920152015
Bayside 3820232005
Mcfaddin220112011
Indianola220071971
Progreso219951994
Oyster Lake220191995
Bayside 2220041997
Lag Atascosa120211971
Raymondville120021978
Petronila119761976
Chinquapin120152006
Bayside120101994
Danbury120091992
Catarina 3120192019

Caspian Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacaliforniadelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianalouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamontananevadanorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.