BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Caspian Tern Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Caspian Tern in Texas has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+2%Since 1974
15Routes In State
40Years

Notable Caspian Tern Trends in Texas

No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Texas. See the full index history below.

Caspian Tern Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±209.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2028
0.11Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.2795% range
±209.9%Backtest error
19712028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.100.000.27
20250.110.000.27
20260.110.000.27
20270.110.000.27
20280.110.000.27

Caspian Tern Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Caspian Tern in Texas.
L. Atascosa Nwr1220231999
Padre Island Pais920152015
Bayside 3820232005
Mcfaddin220112011
Indianola220071971
Progreso219951994
Oyster Lake220191995
Bayside 2220041997
Lag Atascosa120211971
Raymondville120021978
Petronila119761976
Chinquapin120152006
Bayside120101994
Danbury120091992
Catarina 3120192019

Caspian Tern Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskacaliforniadelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianalouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamontananevadanorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoregonsouth-carolinautahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.