Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Caspian Tern Population Trend in Utah
Caspian Tern in Utah has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1995.
+57%Since 1995
11Routes In State
23Years
Notable Caspian Tern Trends in Utah
No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Utah. See the full index history below.
Caspian Tern Population Forecast in Utah
If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Utah is projected to rise about 68% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±472.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+68%Change by 2028
0.10Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.3995% range
±472.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2025 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2026 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2027 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| 2028 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Caspian Tern Survey Routes in Utah
| Callao | 4 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Leamington | 2 | 2016 | 2016 |
| Kamas | 2 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Promontory | 1 | 2017 | 1998 |
| Neponset Res | 1 | 2011 | 2000 |
| Lost Cr. Res | 1 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Saleratus Cr | 1 | 2009 | 2004 |
| Hardware Ranch | 1 | 2009 | 2007 |
| Delta | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Ferron | 1 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Bear River | 1 | 2022 | 1993 |
Caspian Tern Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.