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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-faced Ibis Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

White-faced Ibis in Texas has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable White-faced Ibis Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-faced Ibis has collapsed in Texas: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

White-faced Ibis Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-faced Ibis in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.39 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.570.003.7
20260.530.003.6
20270.480.003.6
20280.440.003.5
20290.390.003.5

White-faced Ibis Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording White-faced Ibis in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie4520241967
San Pedro4319991998
Alexander St2119981998
Gruver1520072007
Loyola Beach 21420212010
Heidelberg1420222013
Progreso1120091994
Moon Lake1120111996
Pantex1020161999
Waka1020161986
Chinquapin920211995
Loyola Beach820081994
Goliad Prairie720132013
Bayside 2720042004
Tenmile720192019
Katy620241969
Carlos620242009
Panhandle620161999
Kingsville520111982
Danbury520221967
New Waverly519741974
Lag Atascosa420171969
Petronila420151968
Oak Grove419871987
Claytonville420192015

White-faced Ibis Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.