BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Grebe Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Least Grebe in Texas has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+87%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Grebe Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Grebe has surged in Texas: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Least Grebe Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Least Grebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Grebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.060.000.19
20250.060.000.19
20260.060.000.19
20270.060.000.19
20280.060.000.19

Least Grebe Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Least Grebe in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 23820222011
Hobson1020052004
Katy420232023
Catarina320042004
Loyola Beach320081994
Encinal 2320112011
Zapata219681968
L. Atascosa Nwr220222009
Goliad Prairie220112011
Randado219751975
San Ygnacio219671967
Hinkles Fer220162016
Campbellton220172017
Laredo220232023
Raymondville220071972
Lag Atascosa120222022
Rachal119681968
Encinal120092006
George West120172017
Rock Island120192010
Progreso119961996
Brite119951995
Burton120212021
San Pedro119991999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.