BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Neotropic Cormorant Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Neotropic Cormorant in Texas has surged: up 761% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+761%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Neotropic Cormorant Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Neotropic Cormorant has surged in Texas: up 761% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Neotropic Cormorant Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±136.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Neotropic Cormorant in Texas is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.3
20270.590.001.4
20280.600.001.4
20290.610.001.4
20300.610.001.4

Neotropic Cormorant Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Neotropic Cormorant in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chinquapin10320251999
Kingsville4320071979
Progreso3020091995
Moon Lake 22820252025
Bonner1820252004
Rachal1620112011
San Ygnacio1519821972
L. Atascosa Nwr1420252003
Bayside1220101994
Goliad Prairie1120162011
Campbellton1020161977
Quitman Canyon 21020212018
Hinkles Fer920171969
Bayside 2920041997
Weinert919891988
George West820152014
Loyola Beach 2820242010
Sadler720252014
Winnie620172017
Encinal 2620222016
Danbury420251978
Town Bluff420082003
Bayside 3420252005
Heidelberg420232023
Stowell320232011

Neotropic Cormorant Population Trend in Other States

arizonalouisiananew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.