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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Roseate Spoonbill Population Trend in Texas

All statesWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Texas has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Roseate Spoonbill Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has fallen sharply in Texas: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Roseate Spoonbill Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Texas is projected to rise about 237% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±394.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+237%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±394.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Texas is projected to rise about 237% by 2030 — from 0.12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±394.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.370.000.87
20270.380.000.87
20280.380.000.88
20290.380.000.88
20300.390.000.89

Roseate Spoonbill Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Winnie1420191967
Loyola Beach1220091995
L. Atascosa Nwr920251998
Kingsville820192019
Bayside820031994
Goliad Prairie420162004
Bayside 2420001997
Oyster Lake420251995
Petronila320212003
Hinkles Fer320241968
Indianola320241967
Rock Island320251972
Moon Lake 2320242019
Port Acres320231994
Heidelberg320212014
Lag Atascosa220111976
Campbellton220172017
Loyola Beach 2220242011
Danbury220181971
Progreso220052005
El Sauz219941994
Mcfaddin120162008
George West120152015
Stowell120251968
Katy120151971

Roseate Spoonbill Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.