BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Roseate Spoonbill Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWetland birds

Roseate Spoonbill in Louisiana has surged: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+563%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Roseate Spoonbill Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Roseate Spoonbill has surged in Louisiana: up 563% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Roseate Spoonbill Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Louisiana is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±426.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Roseate Spoonbill in Louisiana is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±426.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.004.8
20262.30.004.9
20272.30.004.9
20282.40.004.9
20292.40.005.0

Roseate Spoonbill Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Roseate Spoonbill in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maurice3020241989
Richard2220242008
Ltl Chenier 22220102010
Woodlawn2020212008
Esther1520241989
Forked Island1320242008
Forked Island 21020112010
Hackberry 2920242018
Creole819871980
Keystone720131999
Sabine Nwr620021992
Ville Platte520191993
Gibson420001999
Kraemer420232009
Berwick420162000
Atchafalaya320131995
Baton Rouge320112011
Kaplan320221998
Ramah220222008
Sabine Nwr 2220142009
Ltl Chenier220181986
Freetown120092008
Gran Chenier119821973
River Road120152015
Tensas Nwr119871987

Roseate Spoonbill Population Trend in Other States

floridageorgiamississippisouth-carolinatexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.