BirdAnalyst
Guild · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In Missouri

All statesMissouri

12 species in this guild. As a group they are -51%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have fallen sharply in Missouri, down 51% since 1969.

Wetland Birds In Missouri Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in Missouri is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.60.6513
20276.40.4512
20286.20.2412
20296.00.0412
20305.80.0012

Member Species In Missouri

Wetland birds species in Missouri.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Little Blue HeronArdeidae-99%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-74%
Great-tailed GrackleIcteridae-65%
Yellow-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-64%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-55%
Green HeronArdeidae-53%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-34%
Western Cattle-EgretArdeidae+1%
Snowy EgretArdeidae+4%
Great EgretArdeidae+32%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+41%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+174%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.