BirdAnalyst
Guild · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wetland Birds In New York

All statesNew York

23 species in this guild. As a group they are -48%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wetland birds as a group have declined in New York, down 48% since 1968.

Wetland Birds In New York Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in New York is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wetland birds in New York is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.006.8
20272.90.006.6
20282.70.006.5
20292.60.006.4
20302.50.006.3

Member Species In New York

Wetland birds species in New York.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Common TernLaridae-97%
Herring GullLaridae-95%
Snowy EgretArdeidae-83%
Black-crowned Night HeronArdeidae-58%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-57%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-53%
Common GallinuleRallidae-50%
Virginia RailRallidae-40%
Least TernLaridae-24%
Green HeronArdeidae-22%
Pied-billed GrebePodicipedidae+1%
Black SkimmerLaridae+20%
SoraRallidae+42%
American BitternArdeidae+58%
Rusty BlackbirdIcteridae+61%
Glossy IbisThreskiornithidae+64%
Great EgretArdeidae+76%
Great Blue HeronArdeidae+92%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+148%
Common LoonGaviidae+150%
Great Black-backed GullLaridae+203%
Double-crested CormorantPhalacrocoracidae+288%
Ring-billed GullLaridae52×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.