BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Black-backed Gull Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Great Black-backed Gull in New York has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+203%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Black-backed Gull Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Black-backed Gull has surged in New York: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Great Black-backed Gull Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Great Black-backed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 85% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±158.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Black-backed Gull in New York is projected to rise about 85% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±158.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.110.000.26
20250.110.000.26
20260.110.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.110.000.26

Great Black-backed Gull Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Great Black-backed Gull in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Westhampton1320181975
Jones Beach720131966
Macdougall519991999
Huntington320231975
Somers319751975
Hauppauge220122012
Penfield119941978

Great Black-backed Gull Population Trend in Other States

connecticutdelawaremainemarylandmassachusettsnew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiorhode-islandvermontvirginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.