BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Bittern Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

American Bittern in New York has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Bittern Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Bittern has risen sharply in New York: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Bittern Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in New York is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.41 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.30
20270.150.000.30
20280.150.000.30
20290.150.000.30
20300.150.000.30

American Bittern Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Bittern in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Philadelphia1220251989
Waddington619981981
Ogdensburg520251983
Ellenburg320061989
Westhampton219931988
Huntington219811981
Somers219701970
Horseshoe L.219981993
Churchville219761971
Watertown220101972
Kasoag219931972
Highmarket220191974
Newcomb219881982
Inlet220161979
North River219741971
Argyle220091981
Wanakena220251980
Sabattis219701968
Jones Beach120062006
W Shokan119721972
Austerlitz119681968
Medusa119691969
Meridale120072005
Cobleskill120222012
Harris Hill120052005

American Bittern Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.