BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Bittern Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

American Bittern in New York has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Bittern Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in New York. See the full index history below.

American Bittern Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in New York is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in New York is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.26
20260.130.000.26
20270.130.000.26
20280.130.000.26
20290.130.000.26

American Bittern Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Bittern in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waddington619981981
Ellenburg320061989
Westhampton219931988
Huntington219811981
Somers219701970
Horseshoe L.219981993
Churchville219761971
Watertown220101972
Kasoag219931972
Highmarket220191974
Newcomb219881982
Inlet220161979
North River219741971
Argyle220091981
Ogdensburg220241983
Sabattis219701968
Philadelphia220241989
Jones Beach120062006
W Shokan119721972
Austerlitz119681968
Medusa119691969
Meridale120072005
Cobleskill120222012
Harris Hill120052005
S Berne119821982

American Bittern Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.