BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Bittern Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

American Bittern in Kansas has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+78%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Bittern Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Bittern in Kansas. See the full index history below.

American Bittern Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2024 — from 0.09 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Bittern in Kansas is projected to fall about 34% by 2024 — from 0.09 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.060.000.12
20210.060.000.12
20220.060.000.12
20230.060.000.12
20240.060.000.12

American Bittern Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording American Bittern in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albert420191969
Trading Post320122009
Gray319941987
Coats119791979
Barclay120082008
Buckeye119741974
Olsburg120162016

American Bittern Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowalouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.