BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWetland birds

Sora in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+178%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 177% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Sora In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.35
20260.090.000.35
20270.090.000.35
20280.090.000.35
20290.090.000.35

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Sora in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sybille CynWYOMING52015
WaldenCOLORADO32017
AlamosaCOLORADO32024
YampaCOLORADO22016
ColonaCOLORADO21987
TarryallCOLORADO22019
CastletonCOLORADO22023
DoylevilleCOLORADO22023
Buffalo ParkCOLORADO22023
Deadman Rd.COLORADO22021
Fox CreekCOLORADO22024
BufordWYOMING22016
BufordCOLORADO12014
AspenCOLORADO11983
ParlinCOLORADO12022
MoffatCOLORADO12024
DoloresCOLORADO11982
FalfaCOLORADO11998
Wray GulchCOLORADO12005
Wilson CreekCOLORADO12024
Lost LakeCOLORADO12019
CortezCOLORADO12000
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO12024
SummitvilleCOLORADO12021
PaoniaCOLORADO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.