BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Sora in Great Basin has surged: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+122%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in Great Basin: up 122% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Sora In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Great Basin is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Great Basin is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.030.41
20260.220.030.41
20270.220.030.41
20280.230.040.41
20290.230.040.41

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Sora in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish LakeOREGON102024
Three ForksOREGON52011
BrewsterWASHINGTON52000
DorrisCALIFORNIA42019
ChinchaloOREGON42023
PrincetonOREGON31984
Malheur NwrOREGON31998
NubieberCALIFORNIA22017
LikelyCALIFORNIA22024
RirieIDAHO22000
BatesIDAHO22023
Modoc PointOREGON21974
BlyOREGON22001
PromontoryUTAH22008
LynnUTAH22010
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH22019
Turnbull NwrWASHINGTON22023
IngallsCALIFORNIA11992
RavendaleCALIFORNIA11983
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA11999
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12015
BakerIDAHO12023
LeadoreIDAHO12023
SquirrelIDAHO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.