BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Sora in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Sora In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.55
20260.220.000.55
20270.220.000.56
20280.220.000.56
20290.220.000.56

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Sora in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA82015
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA72019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA52024
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA52015
ForsythMONTANA42018
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA41967
BrusettMONTANA32023
Jordan SouthMONTANA32018
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32022
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA32011
NatronaWYOMING31983
RoyMONTANA22023
CircleMONTANA21978
WebsterMONTANA22023
Wheat BasinMONTANA22024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA22019
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21982
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA22018
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA22019
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22023
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.