BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Sora in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

-45%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Sora in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Sora In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.31
20260.090.000.31
20270.100.000.31
20280.100.000.31
20290.100.000.32

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Sora in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swan LakeNEBRASKA32021
AlbertKANSAS22019
KennedyNEBRASKA22024
St JohnKANSAS11993
TableNEBRASKA12015
Crescent LkNEBRASKA11999
BrownleeNEBRASKA12019
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA12019
NenzelNEBRASKA12024
BassettNEBRASKA12024
HamptonNEBRASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.