BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWetland birds

Sora in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+147%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Sora In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.24–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.24–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.144.9
20262.50.174.9
20272.50.194.9
20282.60.224.9
20292.60.245.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Sora in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA242024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA202023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA192024
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA192019
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA172009
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA132024
WestbyMONTANA92023
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA92015
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA92024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA92022
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA92024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA92024
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA81983
Bowesmont 2NORTH-DAKOTA82016
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA72024
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA72011
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA72019
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA62024
BroadlandSOUTH-DAKOTA62010
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA62023
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA52024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA52022
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.