BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sora In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Sora in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-62%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.000.66
20260.320.000.66
20270.320.000.66
20280.320.000.65
20290.320.000.65

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sora in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Neponset ResUTAH52018
NaplesIDAHO42024
Silver CreekOREGON42021
CascadeIDAHO31984
KalispellMONTANA32024
St MaryMONTANA32008
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32024
OttoWYOMING31987
MammothWYOMING32024
MeeteetseWYOMING32023
CrowheartWYOMING32021
Big SandyWYOMING32024
Mtn ViewWYOMING32024
CabartonIDAHO22023
BeaverheadMONTANA22024
Red RockMONTANA22021
St. Mary 2MONTANA22023
Heart ButteMONTANA22024
Swan LakeMONTANA22019
RaynesfordMONTANA22023
AlbeeOREGON21995
FloraOREGON22000
BridgeportOREGON22021
Summit PrOREGON22019
UnityOREGON22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.