BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Sora In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWetland birds

Sora in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sora has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sora In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Sora in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sora in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.65). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.320.000.66
20270.320.000.65
20280.320.000.65
20290.320.000.65
20300.310.000.65

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Sora in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NaplesIDAHO62025
BridgeportOREGON62025
Neponset ResUTAH52018
Big SandyWYOMING52025
Silver CreekOREGON42021
CascadeIDAHO31984
CabartonIDAHO32024
St MaryMONTANA32008
East Glacier ParkMONTANA32024
OttoWYOMING31987
CrowheartWYOMING32021
Mtn ViewWYOMING32024
EllistonMONTANA22025
Red RockMONTANA22021
St. Mary 2MONTANA22023
Heart ButteMONTANA22024
Swan LakeMONTANA22019
AlbeeOREGON21995
FloraOREGON22000
Summit PrOREGON22019
UnityOREGON22018
CusickWASHINGTON22025
FontenelleWYOMING22025
RiversideWYOMING22025
MammothWYOMING22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.