BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak

CardinalidaeForest birdsPheucticus ludovicianus

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,333RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Rose-breasted Grosbeak

The Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus) is a North American member of the Cardinals & Grosbeaks (Cardinalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–8.5 in long (12–22 cm) — a medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,333 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 31 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Cardinalidae · Forest birds

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.28–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.28–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.341.1
20260.720.321.1
20270.700.311.1
20280.690.291.1
20290.680.281.1

Where the Rose-breasted Grosbeak Is Detected

BBS routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak, sized by most recent count.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend by State

Rose-breasted Grosbeak population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a2
Connecticut-72%196820
Georgia-60%19773
Illinois+97%196898
Indiana+353%197053
Iowa+12%196938
Kansas+301%197039
Kentuckyinsufficient datan/a3
Maine-61%196876
Maryland+818%196921
Massachusetts-28%196929
Michigan+80%1968107
Minnesota+1%196992
Missouri+53%196962
Nebraska+5%196936
New Hampshire-54%196826
New Jersey+63%196922
New York-17%1968128
North Carolina-83%197420
North Dakota+242%197024
Ohio+247%196874
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a3
Pennsylvania+62%1968120
Rhode Island+256%19706
South Dakota+241%197614
Tennessee+84%19797
Vermont-48%196826
Virginia+92%196937
West Virginia+575%196848
Wisconsin+7%196898
Wyominginsufficient datan/a1

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+109%196981
Boreal Hardwood Transition+1%1968127
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+6%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-59%1968154
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+376%196942
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+126%1968246
Prairie Hardwood Transition+22%1968159
Central Hardwoods+74%197043
Appalachian Mountains+39%1968293
Piedmont-25%197129
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-40%196867

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 27% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.