BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 3.8–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 3.8–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.86.8
20265.33.86.8
20275.33.86.8
20285.33.86.8
20295.33.86.8

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA282024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA262024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN192024
HolwayWISCONSIN191989
SaxevilleWISCONSIN192024
RichmondMICHIGAN152024
ViroquaWISCONSIN152024
GuilfordILLINOIS132023
Big RapidsMICHIGAN131990
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN132012
N FreedomWISCONSIN132024
St StephenMINNESOTA122016
WhitewaterMINNESOTA122000
MerrillWISCONSIN122024
GreshamWISCONSIN122024
AshbyMINNESOTA112021
LoraineWISCONSIN112021
N AndoverWISCONSIN112024
WiotaWISCONSIN112024
EvergreenMINNESOTA102024
EsdaileWISCONSIN102024
HatfieldWISCONSIN101998
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN102024
No BradleyMICHIGAN92024
AlmenaMICHIGAN92015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.