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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Tennessee has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+95%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.01–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.080.010.15
20270.080.010.15
20280.080.010.15
20290.080.010.15
20300.080.010.15

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cades Cove220042004
Fish Springs220231974
Willis Sprng120182018
Mecca119971997
Tellico120211995
Newfound Gap120251990
Elk Valley120211979

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.