BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Michigan: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 2.5–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.12.67.6
20265.12.67.6
20275.12.57.6
20285.02.57.5
20295.02.57.5

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brush Creek2020161974
Irons1919891970
Harrietta1820241990
Pleasant Val1719971967
Ned Lake1620241986
Riggsville1620191967
Beaver Lake1520111967
Richmond1520242001
Marenisco1420191981
Walloon Lake 21420242005
Hiawatha Nf1420241992
Cunard1320211973
Big Rapids1319901967
Frederic1320031971
Barry S.G.A.1320121995
Bear Lake1220241967
Herron1220162011
Sidnaw1220241993
Cluster Lakes1220102006
Crystal Fls1120241979
Maple Grove1120241967
Skegemog Pt1020241974
Sand Lake1020241978
Imp Lake1020191992
Big Island Lake1020102008

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.