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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Michigan: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.6–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.12.67.6
20275.12.67.6
20285.12.67.6
20295.12.67.6
20305.12.67.6

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brush Creek2020161974
Irons1919891970
Pleasant Val1719971967
Riggsville1620191967
Beaver Lake1520111967
Richmond1520242001
Chippewa Lk.1520251992
Hiawatha Nf1520251992
Marenisco1420191981
Sand Lake1420251978
Walloon Lake 21420242005
Ned Lake1320251986
Cunard1320211973
Big Rapids1319901967
Frederic1320031971
Barry S.G.A.1320121995
Crystal Fls1220251979
Bear Lake1220251967
Herron1220162011
Cluster Lakes1220102006
Raco1120251971
Hungerford1020251991
Imp Lake1020191992
Sidnaw1020251993
Big Island Lake1020102008

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.