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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Pennsylvania has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has risen sharply in Pennsylvania: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.54.0
20262.81.54.0
20272.81.54.0
20282.81.54.0
20292.81.54.0

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duvall1920211977
Laurel Hill1620241978
Mill Run1220241978
Rasselas1120221969
Poyntelle920241973
Harmonsburg720231966
Little Marsh720241972
Beaver720241974
Roulette 2720242022
Espyville620241967
Akeley619761967
Betula620221973
Ravensburg619801966
N Pine Grove520241969
Marsh Hill520241983
Portersville519881973
Patton520231977
Mount Joy520061997
Clover420241981
Whig Hill420241968
Odin420241973
Eldred420221973
Starlight419991970
Geeseytown420241987
Harrisville420231997

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.