BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+301%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.05–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.05–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.040.23
20270.140.040.24
20280.140.040.24
20290.140.050.24
20300.150.050.24

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turton320102010
Volga220251980
Wilmot220231997
Veblen220151995
Forbes219831983
Lennox120251967
Tripp120251976
Howard120252008
Geddes120181990
Rosebud120092009
Raymond120112005
Roswell119811981
Britton120211985
Lane 2120102002

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.