BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+241%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in South Dakota: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota is projected to fall about 18% by 2028 — from 0.17 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.04–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.030.23
20250.130.040.23
20260.130.040.23
20270.140.040.23
20280.140.040.23

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turton320102010
Tripp220231976
Wilmot220231997
Veblen220151995
Forbes219831983
Lennox120231967
Howard120082008
Geddes120181990
Rosebud120092009
Volga120141980
Raymond120112005
Roswell119811981
Britton120211985
Lane 2120102002

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.