BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Carolina has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-83%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has collapsed in North Carolina: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.43
20260.040.000.42
20270.040.000.41
20280.030.000.41
20290.020.000.40

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N. Mills Riv319951994
Jonas Ridge319681968
Fontana319841968
Cherokee320222011
French Broad River320232001
Highlands220151994
Waterville120161994
Busick119991994
Climax119851985
Kyle120241994
Brevard120152013
Craven Gap119751974
Copeland119741974
Call119921992
Cullowhee120091974
Linville120181976
Marshall120142001
Murphy120142014
Todd120231995
Oteen120231976

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.