BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Indiana has surged: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+353%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Indiana: up 353% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Indiana is projected to rise about 160% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+160%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Indiana is projected to rise about 160% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.34–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.730.321.1
20260.740.321.1
20270.740.331.2
20280.750.341.2
20290.760.341.2

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jamestown520241988
Packertown420041973
Berne320231981
Wallace320242000
Knox220231981
Kewanna220211981
Fowler220211970
Galveston220211981
Thorntown220221983
Wabash220231981
Spencer220161979
Clear Spring220232017
Lagrange220192000
Frankfort220212001
Kankakee Sands220182000
Lakeville220241996
Gary119911981
Hebron120211970
South Bend119901968
Middlebury120241992
Columbia Cty120131985
Ellis120241966
W Lafayette120211988
Monticello120231981
Tipton119921982

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.