BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+1%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.9–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 4.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 1.9–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.15.5
20263.82.05.5
20273.72.05.5
20283.72.05.4
20293.71.95.4

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield 22820242005
Chisholm2620242019
Caledonia 22620242013
Glendale2320241993
Crane Lake1920241969
Sherry Lake1820221969
Hart Lake1320241967
St Stephen1220161967
Whitewater1220001994
Ashby1120211997
Evergreen1020241967
Debs1020241969
Floodwood920241967
Oklee920211981
Millville820191967
Cass Lake820161980
Sherburne Nr820241990
Lude720231978
Lake Bronson720111978
Jordan720231993
Little Fork620241969
Brook Park620241998
Greenbush620241993
Princeton520241969
Wigwam Bay520231967

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.