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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+11%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.15.6
20273.82.15.5
20283.82.05.5
20293.72.05.5
20303.72.05.5

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glendale2920251993
Chisholm2620242019
Crane Lake2320251969
Sherry Lake1820221969
Sherburne Nr1820251990
Chatfield 21620252005
Mcgregor1220251993
Whitewater1220001994
Lockport1120251967
Ashby1120211997
Cromwell1020251967
Princeton920251969
Oklee920211981
Caledonia 2920252013
Millville820251967
Evergreen820251967
Red Lake820251993
Cass Lake820161980
Glyndon720251978
Hovland720251973
Lake Bronson720111978
Brook Park720251998
Little Fork620241969
Warroad620251994
Lakeville520251970

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.