BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+247%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Ohio: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.12.3
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.81.22.3
20291.81.22.4

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Somerset2119911972
Stonecreek1620241996
Herner Crns1220231967
Dresden1020241988
Tar Hollow920241996
Lenox820241966
Mohican S.F.820241995
Pittsfield720241992
Pike S.F.720131992
Lucerne620241992
Keene620231993
Birmingham520241992
New Dover419991966
Baxter Ridge420231998
Smithfield420241990
Petersburg320011996
Lattasburg320231985
West Elkton320122003
Scioto Trail320131992
Hiram320191992
Bloomville220241993
Peru219781977
Garrettsvile219911968
Botkins220172017
Marion220221966

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.