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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+241%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Ohio: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.12.3
20271.81.22.3
20281.81.22.4
20291.81.22.4
20301.81.22.4

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stonecreek2220251996
New Somerset2119911972
Tar Hollow920241996
Fulton820251971
Dresden820251988
Pittsfield720241992
Pike S.F.720131992
Keene620231993
Lenox520251966
Herner Crns520251967
Birmingham520241992
Mohican S.F.520251995
New Dover419991966
Petersburg320011996
West Elkton320122003
Scioto Trail320131992
Peru219781977
Garrettsvile219911968
Botkins220172017
Marion220221966
Lattasburg220251985
Smithfield220251990
Cumberland220142014
Rome220241998
Hiram220251992

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.