BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Virginia has surged: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Virginia: up 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Virginia is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.09–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Virginia is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.50 (95% range 0.09–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.070.89
20260.480.070.89
20270.490.080.90
20280.490.090.90
20290.500.090.91

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mountain Lk.820181992
Bald Knob420241992
Stanley320121978
Putnam320001969
Iron Mountain 2320132012
Edinburg220051973
Gr North Mtn220241993
Isom220241978
Covington220241967
Natural Brid220182017
Amherst220001996
Shipman219721972
Front Royal220171993
Marion219821982
Star Tannery119931993
Taylorstown119821982
W Augusta120241967
Churchville119761966
Tryme119961995
Jerome120092009
Nat Tunnel119891989
Rural Retrt120241982
New Market120191992
Douthat120141995
Shenandoa Np120241993

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.