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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Kansas has surged: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+359%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Kansas: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Kansas is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Kansas is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.250.69
20270.470.260.69
20280.480.260.70
20290.480.270.70
20300.490.270.71

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert720251982
Albert419971977
Jewell419991984
Jewell 2220252009
Coats220011997
Olathe219901970
Kanopolis220251980
Minneapolis220191975
Phillipsburg220251971
Logan220252025
Hodges220142014
Solomon220171990
Humboldt120041981
Lapland119921992
Wellington120102010
St John119851984
Dover120171973
Barclay120121979
Wreford120191968
Ellinor120191969
Chapman119781976
Buckeye119881978
Leoville120152015
Grantville120141971
Rock Creek120051968

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.