BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Dakota has surged: up 242% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+242%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in North Dakota: up 242% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Dakota is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.04–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Dakota is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.04–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.041.1
20260.590.041.1
20270.590.041.1
20280.590.041.1
20290.590.041.1

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emerado1120241973
Cooperstown1120241969
Turtle Mtns620241980
Nash420161980
Forman220211971
Walcott220231971
Edgeley120221983
Lake George119931980
Kempton120171976
Wimbledon119811981
Horsehead Lk119831983
Buchanan120131980
Bowesmont120121968
Lakota120031982
Carpio119971984
Loraine120082007
Stanley120152015
Abercrombie120121968
Denbigh120231968
Powers Lake119931993
Parshall119871982
Douglas Crk120151986
Bowesmont 2120162015
Abercrombie 2120172013

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.