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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has risen sharply in Missouri: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.59–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.59–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall1920241994
Trenton1420241967
Kahoka21020242002
Kirksville1020241994
Emden1020242017
Kahoka819981967
Frankford820241985
Sticklervill720241970
Warren619821967
Hamilton619851977
New Point520241994
Rensselaer420241971
Huntsville420241973
Frazier420241967
Bolckow419871967
Lucerne420212016
Luray420242015
Cameron320211986
Barnard320222002
Stet319951972
Tarkio319871968
Woodlandville320232013
Auburn320242018
Cp Girardeau219991989
Watson220241991

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.