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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has risen sharply in Missouri: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.58–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.58–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.582.6
20271.60.582.6
20281.60.582.6
20291.60.582.6
20301.60.582.6

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trenton1820251967
Kahoka21020242002
Mcfall1020251994
Emden1020242017
Lucerne920252016
Kahoka819981967
Huntsville720251973
Frankford720251985
Warren619821967
Hamilton619851977
Laclede620251994
New Point620251994
Luray620252015
Cameron520251986
Frazier420241967
Bolckow419871967
Barnard320222002
Stet319951972
Tarkio319871968
New Hampton320252014
Bland320252006
Kirksville320251994
Cp Girardeau219991989
Handley219861986
Filley219931979

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.