BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New York has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New York. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.08–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.08–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.274.0
20262.10.224.0
20272.10.173.9
20282.00.133.9
20292.00.083.9

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter Lake3519751968
Naples1520241967
S Berne 21220242014
Orange Lake1219921987
Meridale1020241967
Oxford1019761967
Cayuga1020241971
Dryden920241966
Philadelphia820241980
Cooperstown719771969
Churchville720241968
Orleans620171967
Cattaraugus620191967
Pulaski620241968
Waddington619981981
Sciota620061968
Huntington519811966
Somers519771970
Oriskany Fls520241967
Swain520071967
Castile520241967
Sheridan519981967
Sabattis519831966
Parishville520231968
Ellenburg520061989

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.