BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Rhode Island has surged: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+256%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Rhode Island: up 256% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.02–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.02–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.002.9
20261.40.002.9
20271.40.002.9
20281.40.012.9
20291.40.022.9

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quonset Pt220231966
Shannock220241973
Wallum Lake220221973
Sachuest Pt119751967
Pulaski119921991
Casimir Pulaski Sf120182018

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.