BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Rose-breasted Grosbeak Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Vermont is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Vermont is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.004.2
20271.40.004.1
20281.30.004.1
20291.30.004.0
20301.20.004.0

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville719801969
W Rutland520251967
Newbury520041986
Fletcher420241968
Hinesburg419941966
Bristol420181995
Marlboro320251966
S Wallingfrd320221966
Landgrove220241966
Gaysville220251966
Shaftsbury220251966
St Johnsbury220241971
East Haven220241968
Northfld Fls220251980
East Calais220231967
Greensboro220241970
Grand Isle220251969
Newbury 2220232005
Stowe220241988
North Pownal120251966
Stratton120251966
S Reading120241968
Post Mills120251967
Middlesex120231968
Hardwick120161968

Rose-breasted Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

arkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.