BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.1
20260.360.001.1
20270.340.001.1
20280.320.001.0
20290.290.001.0

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillimanticCONNECTICUT82018
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS62024
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
Long HillCONNECTICUT52019
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS52024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK51981
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT42022
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT42024
E HartlandCONNECTICUT31992
WestbrookCONNECTICUT32024
ShermanCONNECTICUT32019
WarrenCONNECTICUT32011
WarrenMASSACHUSETTS32009
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32022
WesthamptonNEW-YORK31987
WoodstockCONNECTICUT22007
GreenwichCONNECTICUT22018
DanburyCONNECTICUT22016
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT22024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT22024
GranbyCONNECTICUT22024
Cape NeddickMAINE22022
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS21983
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.