BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
293Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.91–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.91–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.922.2
20261.50.922.2
20271.50.922.2
20281.50.912.2
20291.50.912.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA192021
StonecreekOHIO162024
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA162024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK122024
Orange LakeNEW-YORK121992
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA122024
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA112022
MeridaleNEW-YORK102024
OxfordNEW-YORK101976
DresdenOHIO102024
DrydenNEW-YORK92024
Tar HollowOHIO92024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA92024
Mohican S.F.OHIO82024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA82018
JenningsMARYLAND72024
FinzelMARYLAND72024
CooperstownNEW-YORK71977
Pike S.F.OHIO72013
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA72024
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA72024
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA72024
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA72015
CattaraugusNEW-YORK62019
KeeneOHIO62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.