BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+120%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.45–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.45–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.441.4
20270.930.441.4
20280.930.441.4
20290.930.451.4
20300.940.451.4

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA102025
OkleeMINNESOTA92021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA82025
TitonkaIOWA72025
GlyndonMINNESOTA72025
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA72011
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA62025
BeltramiMINNESOTA52025
PantherIOWA42025
ChokioMINNESOTA42025
WylieMINNESOTA42023
FranklinMINNESOTA42019
NashNORTH-DAKOTA42016
WashingtonIOWA32025
FairmontMINNESOTA32025
TildenNEBRASKA32025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
KanawhaIOWA22016
ZearingIOWA21995
ScrantonIOWA22025
CourtlandMINNESOTA22025
AppletonMINNESOTA22025
GluekMINNESOTA22017
TenneyMINNESOTA22016
BadgerMINNESOTA22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.