BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+126%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
246Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.3–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.91.32.5
20261.91.32.5
20271.91.32.5
20281.91.32.5
20291.91.32.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EubanksILLINOIS192024
McfallMISSOURI192024
Red RockIOWA152024
TrentonMISSOURI142024
Mt HamillIOWA122024
PaysonILLINOIS112024
BradburyILLINOIS102024
KirksvilleMISSOURI102024
Kahoka2MISSOURI102024
EmdenMISSOURI102024
Terre HauteILLINOIS92024
River FallsWISCONSIN92024
ChandlervillILLINOIS82024
AliceIOWA81999
College Spgs 2IOWA82023
KahokaMISSOURI81998
FrankfordMISSOURI82024
SherrardILLINOIS72024
SticklervillMISSOURI72024
MurdockNEBRASKA72024
SheffieldILLINOIS62024
BudaILLINOIS62023
WilliamsfldILLINOIS62024
CameronILLINOIS62024
Deer CreekILLINOIS62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.