BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
246Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.4–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.32.5
20271.91.32.5
20281.91.32.5
20292.01.32.6
20302.01.42.6

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrentonMISSOURI182025
Red RockIOWA142025
EubanksILLINOIS132025
MaquoketaIOWA122025
Mt HamillIOWA102025
McfallMISSOURI102025
Kahoka2MISSOURI102024
EmdenMISSOURI102024
Terre HauteILLINOIS92025
WilliamsfldILLINOIS92025
ClaytonILLINOIS92025
LucerneMISSOURI92025
River FallsWISCONSIN92025
SherrardILLINOIS82025
BedfordIOWA82025
AliceIOWA81999
KahokaMISSOURI81998
MurdockNEBRASKA82025
FultonOHIO82025
ChandlervillILLINOIS72025
ConcordILLINOIS72025
PaysonILLINOIS72025
MelroseIOWA72025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI72025
FrankfordMISSOURI72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.