BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.7–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 1.7–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.74.5
20263.11.74.5
20273.11.74.5
20283.11.74.5
20293.11.74.5

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New SomersetOHIO211991
NaplesNEW-YORK152024
Herner CrnsOHIO122023
CayugaNEW-YORK102024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK82024
LenoxOHIO82024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK72024
PittsfieldOHIO72024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023
OrleansNEW-YORK62017
PulaskiNEW-YORK62024
WaddingtonNEW-YORK61998
LucerneOHIO62024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA62024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA61976
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52024
CastileNEW-YORK52024
SheridanNEW-YORK51998
ParishvilleNEW-YORK52023
EllenburgNEW-YORK52006
RomulusNEW-YORK41993
MacdougallNEW-YORK42024
BranchportNEW-YORK42024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK42024
RandolphNEW-YORK42018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.