BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Hardwoods has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has risen sharply in Central Hardwoods: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.010.09
20260.050.010.09
20270.050.010.09
20280.050.010.09
20290.050.010.09

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI32023
BirdsILLINOIS22005
SpencerINDIANA22016
Clear SpringINDIANA22023
HandleyMISSOURI21986
HaydenMISSOURI22012
RomeOHIO22024
ComptonARKANSAS11970
AvocaARKANSAS11972
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS11999
BremenILLINOIS12011
DelwoodILLINOIS12023
YorkILLINOIS12024
SanduskyILLINOIS12010
PimentoINDIANA12005
BrazilINDIANA12007
BelmontINDIANA12024
AzaliaINDIANA11992
CumbackINDIANA11987
CelestineINDIANA12001
New PhilaINDIANA12003
CorydonINDIANA11977
HoosierINDIANA12024
LeveeKENTUCKY11969
PorterKENTUCKY11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.