BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 2.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 7.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 2.3–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.72.68.7
20265.62.58.7
20275.52.58.6
20285.52.48.5
20295.42.38.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Popple RiverWISCONSIN272024
ChisholmMINNESOTA262024
GlendaleMINNESOTA232024
GilmanWISCONSIN212024
Brush CreekMICHIGAN202016
IronsMICHIGAN191989
Crane LakeMINNESOTA192024
HarriettaMICHIGAN182024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA182022
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN171997
Ned LakeMICHIGAN162024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN162019
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN152011
CavourWISCONSIN152024
MareniscoMICHIGAN142019
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN142024
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN142024
CunardMICHIGAN132021
FredericMICHIGAN132003
Hart LakeMINNESOTA132024
Grand ViewWISCONSIN132024
AmbergWISCONSIN132024
MellenWISCONSIN132024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN122024
HerronMICHIGAN122016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.