BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.4–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.4–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.72.78.8
20275.72.68.8
20285.62.58.7
20295.52.58.6
20305.52.48.6

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlendaleMINNESOTA292025
Popple RiverWISCONSIN272025
ChisholmMINNESOTA262024
CavourWISCONSIN242025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA232025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN202016
IronsMICHIGAN191989
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA182022
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN182025
BashawWISCONSIN182025
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN171997
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN162019
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN152011
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN152025
WausaukeeWISCONSIN152025
MareniscoMICHIGAN142019
Sand LakeMICHIGAN142025
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN142024
Ned LakeMICHIGAN132025
CunardMICHIGAN132021
FredericMICHIGAN132003
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN122025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN122025
HerronMICHIGAN122016
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN122010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.