BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+370%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 370% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.10–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.47 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.10–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.090.46
20270.280.090.47
20280.280.100.47
20290.290.100.47
20300.290.100.48

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS72025
SurpriseNEBRASKA72025
Red CloudNEBRASKA72024
BelvidereNEBRASKA52025
AlbertKANSAS41997
JewellKANSAS41999
CoatsKANSAS22001
KanopolisKANSAS22025
MinneapolisKANSAS22019
PhillipsburgKANSAS22025
LoganKANSAS22025
SolomonKANSAS22017
Jewell 2KANSAS22025
HodgesKANSAS22014
SewardNEBRASKA22019
Liberty 2NEBRASKA22007
BoelusNEBRASKA22022
HamptonNEBRASKA22025
WellingtonKANSAS12010
St JohnKANSAS11985
ChapmanKANSAS11978
BuckeyeKANSAS11988
LeovilleKANSAS12015
HanoverKANSAS12023
HollenbergKANSAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.