BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+376%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.27 (95% range 0.09–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.080.44
20260.260.080.44
20270.260.080.44
20280.270.090.45
20290.270.090.45

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HollenbergKANSAS72023
Red CloudNEBRASKA72024
AlbertKANSAS41997
CovertKANSAS42024
JewellKANSAS41999
CoatsKANSAS22001
KanopolisKANSAS22023
MinneapolisKANSAS22019
SolomonKANSAS22017
Jewell 2KANSAS22021
HodgesKANSAS22014
JamestownKANSAS22024
SewardNEBRASKA22019
SurpriseNEBRASKA22022
Liberty 2NEBRASKA22007
Liberty 3NEBRASKA22024
BoelusNEBRASKA22022
HamptonNEBRASKA22024
WellingtonKANSAS12010
St JohnKANSAS11985
ChapmanKANSAS11978
BuckeyeKANSAS11988
LeovilleKANSAS12015
HanoverKANSAS12023
PhillipsburgKANSAS12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.