BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Rose-breasted Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Rose-breasted Grosbeak In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.003.9
20260.900.003.8
20270.810.003.7
20280.730.003.6
20290.650.003.6

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Rose-breasted Grosbeak in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK351975
NorthfieldMAINE291981
WaiteMAINE121977
New HartfordCONNECTICUT71987
BentonMAINE71980
Pillsbury PdMAINE71968
WashburnMAINE72005
Clayton Lake 2MAINE72013
WatervilleVERMONT71980
WestbrookMAINE62024
TurnerMAINE62002
ManchesterMAINE61995
BaxterMAINE61988
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS62022
SciotaNEW-YORK62006
WarrenMAINE51990
Ft FairfieldMAINE52005
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
SabattisNEW-YORK51983
NewburyVERMONT52004
Otisfield GrMAINE42015
Carrying PlMAINE42024
LudlowMAINE41998
Priestly Br.MAINE42013
JeffersonMAINE42009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.