BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker

PicidaeForest birdsDryocopus pileatus

Pileated Woodpecker has surged: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+108%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,475RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Pileated Woodpecker

The Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) is a North American member of the Woodpeckers (Picidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
6–19.5 in long (15–50 cm) — a chisel-billed climber (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 2,475 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 41 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Picidae · Forest birds

Notable Pileated Woodpecker TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in surveyed states: up 108% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 1.2–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 1.2–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.31.21.4
20261.31.21.4
20271.31.21.4
20281.31.21.5
20291.31.21.5

Where the Pileated Woodpecker Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pileated Woodpecker, sized by most recent count.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend by State

Pileated Woodpecker population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+67%1968104
Arkansas+10%196961
California+177%197092
Connecticut+159%196920
Delaware42×197115
Florida+199%1968113
Georgia+135%1968110
Idaho+166%197727
Illinois+145%197174
Indiana+176%196854
Iowainsufficient datan/a6
Kansas21×200023
Kentucky+16%196863
Louisiana+198%196984
Maine+113%196875
Maryland20×196872
Massachusetts14×197124
Michigan13×197091
Minnesota+881%196975
Mississippi+395%196873
Missouri+268%196981
Montana+96%197130
New Hampshire17×196825
New Jersey12×197714
New York+344%1968119
North Carolina+198%1968108
North Dakota+275%19957
Ohio+422%196872
Oklahoma+136%196938
Oregon+83%197094
Pennsylvania+440%1968125
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a4
South Carolina+48%196850
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a1
Tennessee+56%196855
Texas-22%196962
Vermont+316%196825
Virginia+193%196887
Washington+39%197071
West Virginia+62%196863
Wisconsin+376%196888

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pileated Woodpecker population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+17%1970122
Great Basin+30%197051
Northern Rockies+319%197193
Prairie Potholes+146%197922
Boreal Hardwood Transition14×1968124
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+311%196880
Atlantic Northern Forest+429%1968150
Sierra Nevada+251%197431
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+53%20097
Oaks and Prairies+435%196937
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie20×1969175
Prairie Hardwood Transition+239%1968127
Central Hardwoods+27%1968163
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+25%1969110
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+301%196869
Southeastern Coastal Plain+196%1968343
Appalachian Mountains+158%1968397
Piedmont+476%1968156
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast18×1968113
Peninsular Florida+121%196868
Coastal California+5%197117
Gulf Coastal Prairie-60%196920

Pileated Woodpecker Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 108% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.