BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Arkansas has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pileated Woodpecker in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Arkansas is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.22.04.4
20273.22.04.5
20283.32.14.5
20293.32.14.5
20303.32.14.5

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark Nf1220251991
Poyen1020061967
Marshall820192011
Boston Mtn.820251994
Waldron720251967
Compton720221967
Nance720251992
Crows619911968
Blakely619991968
Lurton620231967
Sims620252010
Rupert520241967
Ravenden Springs520152010
Magazine Mtn520251993
Four Lakes520011994
Hatfield 2520252017
Crowley'S Ridge520252011
Stamps420231967
Hughes420231967
Farwell420182010
Princeton 2420222022
South Bend320251967
Saffell320191967
Zion320251969
Fulton320251968

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.