BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Michigan has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

13×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Michigan: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Michigan is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.1–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.41.01.7
20261.41.11.8
20271.41.11.8
20281.51.11.8
20291.51.11.8

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bravo920151992
Bootjack620231973
Brocky Lake520241981
Bergland420221979
Marenisco420191981
Herman420221990
Crystal Fls420241981
Maple Grove420241973
Tahquamenon420241974
Walloon Lake 2420242005
Ontonagon320191985
Ned Lake320241986
Wilson320101970
Howardsville320242014
Monterey320241978
Remus320241988
Hamburg 2320232018
Barry S.G.A.320122004
Cluster Lakes320092006
Big Island Lake320082008
Cunard220191990
Bear Lake220241986
Scottville220241968
Gilchrist220211976
Big Rapids219901975

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.