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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Pennsylvania has surged: up 470% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+470%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Pennsylvania: up 470% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.7–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.52.2
20271.91.62.2
20281.91.62.2
20291.91.62.3
20302.01.72.3

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tussey Mtn.1320251993
Stoneybreak1120251992
Broad Mtn.820251993
Odin720251973
Roulette 2720252022
Arnot620251972
Mars620251991
Ramsey520251970
Waller520251971
Starlight 2520242008
Harmonsburg420231969
Sigel420251981
Marsh Hill420251983
Greentown420242003
Munson420251982
Naginey420251971
Carsonville420231977
Landisburg420251978
Wild Creek420251995
Ansonia420252002
N Washington320251970
Roulette320211981
Hop Bottom320251976
Honesdale320251978
Canadensis320251969

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.