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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 903% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+903%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 903% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.961.7
20271.40.981.8
20281.41.01.8
20291.41.01.8
20301.41.01.8

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm1120242019
Blackduck820222004
Lockport720251986
Sawbill Camp720251993
Crane Lake620251970
Bigfork620251993
Minnetonka520251973
Sherry Lake520221989
Debs520251970
Lude520251978
Jordan520251993
Nebish420251982
Princeton420251976
Pine River420241977
Hovland420251974
Nett Lake420242013
Mcgregor420251993
Chatfield319961974
Sherburne Nr320251991
Cromwell320251971
Edwards320241986
Hart Lake320231968
Floodwood320251967
Mahtowa320231993
Brainerd320241994

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.