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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota has surged: up 881% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+881%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pileated Woodpecker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pileated Woodpecker has surged in Minnesota: up 881% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Pileated Woodpecker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.921.7
20261.30.941.7
20271.40.961.7
20281.40.981.8
20291.41.01.8

Pileated Woodpecker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Pileated Woodpecker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crane Lake1420241970
Chisholm1120242019
Hovland820241974
Blackduck820222004
Sawbill Camp620241993
Sherry Lake520221989
Waskish520181982
Pine River420241977
Lockport420241986
Debs420241970
Nett Lake420242013
Chatfield 2420242010
Chatfield319961974
Nebish320221982
Backus320241968
Edwards320241986
Hart Lake320231968
Mahtowa320231993
Brainerd320241994
Money Creek220181967
Sherburne Nr220241991
Tamarac Nwr220231991
Whitewater220001995
Wigwam Bay220211975
Evergreen220241970

Pileated Woodpecker Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.